UK General Election Odds: Will Andy Burnham Call An Early Election?

It will have come as no surprise to long-term UK politics watchers to hear Labour’s opponents demanding that Andy Burnham call an immediate general election, as he has no mandate to govern. 

The argument is of course nonsense, just as it was when Labour demanded the same of the Tories twice in the previous parliament. British politics doesn't work like that and betting sites continue to monitor the situation.

Ours is not a presidential system. We elect a party, which can serve a full five-year term so long as it can form a government.

When Did Previous Appointed PMs Go To The Country? 

Burnham is, in fact, the eighth prime minister in the last 50 years to assume the role mid-term, by virtue of party selection. 

During the same period, only four - Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, David Cameron and Keir Starmer - became PM via a general election. 

Dates They Assumed Office And The Next General Election:

Of course, the PM retains the prerogative to call a general election at any time until their term ends - in this case August 2029. However as the list shows, only one did so within six months of taking office, and only two within a year. In both cases, the decision was taken due to either perceived necessity or because they saw an advantage for their party. 

When Boris Johnson did so in 2019, five months after taking over, it was essential in order to break the parliamentary deadlock over Brexit, which would otherwise have plagued his tenure as it had his predecessor. Having become PM in 2016, Theresa May called a general election amid a honeymoon and 20% plus poll lead. 

The decision spectacularly backfired, as she squeaked victory by a tiny margin, lost her majority, authority over her party and created the Brexit impasse which wrecked her government. The other five all knew an early election would be at best risky, at worst suicidal, and waited until the fifth and final year of their parliamentary term. 

For his part, Burnham has ruled out calling an early election, but that hasn’t deterred bettors from speculating otherwise. 2029 can still be backed at 10/11 with Ladbrokes, while 2027 and 2028 remain relatively popular at 14/5 and 18/5 respectively on betting apps.

The Arguments For An Early Election

The main logic in backing an early election is that Burnham will enjoy a honeymoon and/or become less popular as time goes on. 

Labour’s numbers are indeed ticking up, but remain well below 2024 levels. Even in the most positive of recent MRP surveys, Labour lose their majority and well over 100 seats. Unless these numbers improve considerably, it is extremely unlikely Burnham would risk it. What would be the gain?

The numbers could of course improve. Moreover, with Reform lurching from one corruption scandal to another and the right wing vote split three ways, 2027 could well be an opportune moment. 

Were Nigel Farage to stand down as Reform leader, within a few months their vote could well transfer in large part to either the Conservatives or Restore Britain.

An EU-based Election Could Split The Right

Policy is another factor to consider. Burnham has committed to delivering the 2024 Labour manifesto, but he may very well wish to go further. Most notably on Britain’s relationship with the EU, and social care. 

Were he to promise a referendum on rejoining the EU, or to merely rejoin the Customs Union or Single Market, that would realistically require a new mandate. 

Such a move would also exacerbate divisions among right-wing opponents, and make it easier to build a tactical coalition on the left.

History Illustrates The Peril Of Even Considering Going Early

If we are to assume that Burnham at least secretly retains an open mind, the three historic scenarios he will doubtless consider are Callaghan, May and Brown.

It is part of Labour folklore that Callaghan should have called an election in 1978, as he was seriously considering, before the ‘Winter of Discontent’ propelled Thatcher to power. 

The key difference with today is that Callaghan was managing a Labour-Liberal parliamentary pact with a tiny majority. There was some potential gain. Burnham would be seen to be doing so for party advantage, like May. 

Whether or not that hurt her campaign is a known unknown, but it was a warning about believing early poll hype which will haunt prime ministers for centuries to come.

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Brown’s Experience May Still Haunt Burnham

The scenario most similar to Burnham's is Brown, and not just because they are both Labour PMs. Brown took over amid a bad period for Labour, yet holding a working majority and inheriting much goodwill from leftish voters who preferred him to Tony Blair. 

He duly got a poll bounce which restored their advantage over the Tories. Where Brown went catastrophically wrong was allowing his team to brief journalists that an autumn election was planned, only to then (implausibly) deny considering it. 

His very public humiliation under derisory questioning on the matter badly damaged his personal brand, transforming from the ‘Iron Chancellor’ to ‘Bottler Brown’. It marked a turning point which ultimately led to Labour's defeat in 2010.

Burnham was a senior minister in that government, so it is no surprise that he is trying to close the idea down. The speculation, however, will not disappear. It is as much an intrinsic part of our political culture as parties changing prime ministers mid-term. 

All things considered, 2029 is probably a solid favourite, but expect this market to ebb and flow before reaching its conclusion. If Labour do build a clear poll lead and/or Reform do implode, the speculation will reach fever pitch and it is bound to drive a gamble.

Do you want Andy Burnham to call an early General Election? Let us know your thoughts in the comment box below.